Sales of new homes in the United States probably rebounded in February from a three-year low, a sign the worst of the real estate rout has passed.Purchases rose to an annual pace of 990,000, up 5.7 percent from January, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed ahead of a Commerce Department report today. The National Association of Realtors last week said sales of previously owned homes rose by the most in three years.

Improving sales will help builders trim a glut of unsold homes, paving the way for construction gains later in the year and tempering the biggest source of weakness in the economy. The figures are a respite for an industry plagued by concerns that defaults on subprime mortgages will derail a market rebound.

The housing market is “fairly well along in the process of rebalancing,” said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City Corp in Cleveland. Subprime-mortgage defaults “can’t bring the entire market down.”

Economists say that while the biggest declines in residential construction have already occurred, the housing slowdown will continue to restrain economic growth for at least the first half of the year.

The biggest drop in home building in 15 years weighed on growth last quarter. The economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent in the last quarter of 2006, the Commerce Department is forecast to report Thursday in it’s final revision to gross domestic product. That reading would match last month’s preliminary estimate.

Residential construction declined in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 19.1 percent, the most since 1991, after an 18.7 percent decrease the previous quarter, Commerce estimated last month. The drop subtracted 1.16 percentage points from GDP.

“Having entered the spring selling season, we continue to observe instability in the marketplace,” said Jeffrey Mezger, chief executive officer of KB Home. “Recent problems in the subprime mortgage market along with the tightening credit requirements could exacerbate already difficult conditions.”

Economists at Lehman Brothers laid out three stages to the “housing recession” in a weekly newsletter to clients. The first, a decline in home construction in the final six months of 2006, has likely run its course and will be less of a drag on growth this year, they said. The second is the effect of flat home prices on the consumer, which will slow spending by year end. The final stage is the effect tighter lending standards will have on the housing market. This influence, they said, will probably extend into 2009.

A report from the Commerce Department Friday is forecast to show personal spending, which accounts for two-thirds of the economy, rose 0.3 percent in February, the smallest gain in four months.

The report is also forecast to show inflation remains elevated. A measure of prices tied to spending and excluding food and energy, the measure tracked by Federal Reserve policymakers, is forecast to rise 2.4 percent from February 2006, the biggest year-over-year gain since September.

Central bankers last week kept the benchmark US interest rate at 5.25 percent and unexpectedly abandoned their tilt toward higher borrowing costs. Fed officials also said inflation was their “predominant” concern.

“The economy appears to be suffering a bit of stagflation, with weaker growth and stubborn inflation,” said Ethan Harris, chief economist at Lehman in New York.

While the housing market is showing signs of stabilization, manufacturing may be on the mend. A Commerce Department report Wednesday is forecast to show orders for durable goods increased 3.5 percent in February after an 8.7 percent slump a month earlier.

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