Taking a consensus, most of you believe that high inflation will lead to higher rate and which subsequently lead to mortgage unaffordability. Some also suggest that high mandatory costs in life such as food price may lead to avoidance by people to spend on real estate. All these reasons make sense. But they make sense only for the short and mid term, i.e., from 5-7 years. Now, let me go deeper, how about for very long term, >10 years. If high inflation has doubled or tripled the food price, doubled or tripled the educational cost, doubled or triple the utility cost, and gas cost, doubled or tripled the renting cost…, will housing price remain cheap? Is housing asset or land asset so unique that it will be singled out from general inflation rise?

I think not. Because, for the short term, higher inflation may exert pressure on housing asset price, but if you extend the time long enough, housing price should not remain cheap since every other commodity price has caught up with it, especially the rental cost. Eventually, housing/land cost will go up as well.

Now, look at China, it’s experiencing the world’s highest and fastest inflation growth, at the same time, high inflation did not stop housing price increase at all. Housing price is actually leading China’s inflation rush.

I bet Greenspan is still correct. Upon further thought, I think Greenspan is right on “high inflation->low housing price” for a short to mid term horizon. He did not mean this for long term. Then, every thing makes sense.

Thought on NYC condo’s appreciation potential

From the latest NY Magazine, there is a detailed analysis of NYC’s housing market (Please click above link). This is another indication why we should invest in key locations like NYC. The price there has risen from 95’s 400K to 07’s $1.3 million, more than tripled. It also said that the worst case scenario for NYC is dropping to around $1.0 million. That’s a worst case of 300K drop. That means that 600K rise from 95 to 07 is permanent. 300K is froth.

If that’s to be the case, buying a NYC condo at $1.0 million and hold for the next cycle, by 2015 or a little bit beyond, the target prie may rise to $1.6 million. Is this an opportunity for making 600K this way (over 8 years)?