DC is land-locked similar to California. A land-locked place combined with nation’s highest family income is a formula for fast price growth. Historically, DC region has yielded 7.2% over past 50 years. However, we need to be aware that the last 50 years was only a warm-up period before the next 50 yeras. Why I say it’s only a warm-up period? because over the last 50 years, DC region didn’t experience as much land-lock situation as it’s going to happen in the next 50 years. 2004 was the first year that Montgomery county and Fairfax county first approached complete built-out condition. It took over 50 years to reach that state. Now, as soon as this critical threshold is broken, hell will break loose, faster appreciation rate will unfold. So, I would say next 50 years may yield higher than 7.2% rate, it could be 9% rate going forward, similar to California situation.

Now, let’s look at Texas. Texas’s officially economic project all project a very plentiful land supply to meet demand. The land situation is basically free. So, it will take Texas as long as 30-40 years to finally reach land-lock condition, if it ever will. Therefore, the only helping factor in Texas is natural inflation. In DC area, it’s inflation plus land-lock and high income. So, if you are looking for a replay of Northern CA, DC area may be a best candidate.