Bottom can usually be spotted with a total lack of bullish messages on any BBS or blogs or on Media. Talking about investing in real estate will be mocked at by friends and in parties. If all you hear in a social gathering are concerns of company layoffs…, stock brokers are suggesting asset re-allocation to mostly bond funds, then most probably, the bottom is hit.

However, peak is harder to spot. I don’t have a complete methodology to spot that yet. However, usually when everybody, even novices are shouting about investing in real estate, that probably mean a top.

Where are we? I think we are not at the peak, but closer to peak. Definitely we are not at the bottom by the sheer number of bullish posts in this board. If everybody turns into PoorKids, the bottom is hit.