S&P 500 — Getting “Real”
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What is interesting is how everyone assesses the economy in ‘real terms’ but the equity market in ‘nominal terms’. The reason why economists prefer to focus on ‘real variables’ is so that the trend can be examined net of the effects of inflation (or deflation). Standards of living are a ‘physical’ concept – how many widgets are we producing per capita? How far will the dollar go? These are questions that require ‘real’ variables. So, when we normalize the long-run chart of the S&P 500 with the Consumer Price Index, and look at the stock market in real terms as we do with output and employment, it tells a very interesting, if not disturbing, tale. Here is what jumps out at us:
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